العدد 04

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Open Access
نمذجة الفجوة الغذائية للقمح في الجزائر للفترة 1965 - 2016
(Université de M'sila, 2017-12) بوعافية, سمير
The main purpose of this research is to analyse production and consumption indicators, as well as the wheat food gap in Algeria, as it's directly related to achieve food security, in additionmodeling standard of the wheat food gap and predicting their levels up to 2020 using the Box- Jenkins methodology. The study concluded that the mixed model of the form ARIMA (1.1.2) is the most appropriate model for forecasting. According to the proposed model, the wheat food gap is expected to increase during the period (2017-2020), which indicates attempts to find solutions to reduce or eliminate the gap completely by giving priority to the economic development of the agricultural sector.